Ukraine – The View from Poland, February Update

A soldier walks along Ukrainian armored vehicles blocking a street in Kyiv, Ukraine, Saturday, Feb. 26, 2022. Russian troops stormed toward Ukraine’s capital Saturday, and street fighting broke out as city officials urged residents to take shelter. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky) (Source)

Not hearing much about Ukraine in the news in the U.S. (that I’ve noticed, of course I don’t watch hardly any television, and stay away from the “major” news outlets online) but the fighting continues and the first anniversary of the invasion approaches. Lots of balloons and UFOs in the news though. Here’s a new report from our Polish correspondent. (He touches upon the balloons and UFOs as well, not necessarily having anything at all to do with Ukraine, but interesting.)

Ewok report, eve of anniversary episode.

This is your humble correspondent, observing events in Ukraine and elsewhere concerning the biggest war in Europe since 1945.

  1. The Leopard drama concludes.

Germans finally gave up under pressure from both US and the likes of Poland and Baltics. Leopard 2s are heading into Ukraine soon, along with token Challenger 2 (14) and Abrams (31) contingents. Supporting them will be at least 88 Leopard 1s (possibly more if either Turkey or Greece will be convinced to part with them).

The older 1a5 Leopards lack the heavy armor protection but have been modernised to have pretty much same advanced sensors, sights and stabilisation which means that they enjoy both target acquisition and accuracy advantage over most Russian tanks,

The tanks will need to be trained with the new Ukrainian crews, indeed as I write

Poland is already training Ukrainian tankmen.

  1. Zelensky tours Western Europe:

Zelensky, having secured tanks pleads for modern fighters. Apart from look-down shoot-down capability to hunt cruise missiles, those would be possibly able to run gauntlet of Russian air defenses and finish off the damaged Crimea bridge. This together with longer range missiles like ground launched small diameter bomb (also in the newest US delivery list) breaking the railway links on the Azov Sea coast might see Russians supply lines to Crimea critically compromised (Russia is HEAVILY relying on railways for logistics, trucks are in short supply, and needed for the “last miles” from railheads anyway.

  1. Russian Army gets ready for “Anniversary Offensive”

Eastern front in the Donbas seems to be the place, with elements of 3rd and 144th Motor Rifle Divisions, 90th Tank Division, and 76th Airborne Division spotted in the area.

It seems that after letting the Wagner Group bleed itself dry out of convicts recruited for the war, and weaken somewhat Ukrainians in the process, regular Army is wanting to do finally some combined arms offensive, with time moment chosen to either commemorate anniversary of war, or simply to get things done before March snows melting turn the steppe into sea of mud. And before western MBT arrive , too.

How will they fare, might be indicative of entire war course to come. If Russia one year into the war fails badly at combined arms offensive, this will mean pretty much they are incapable of learning and doomed to fail. If they succeed in major way, clearing rest of the Donbas of Ukrainian troops, Russia can declare victory and ask for peace. If they do some minor gains, but not enough to declare victory, expect more of carnage in the year to come, or maybe into more years to come.

  1. Balloon d’essai.

This one will possibly impact Ukraine indirectly, as US will have to keep eye open on China and get ready for possible Taiwan war.

My US audience is better than me familiar with the whole saga of Winnie the pooh and USAF bees.,quality=80,onerror=redirect,format=auto/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/10/271638.jpg

what made me go hhmm, is the follow up:

2 separate shootdowns over Alaska and Canada within 48 hours.

This seems to be much more massive operation by the Chinese, not one-off accident.

USAF was definitely told to this time take gloves off and go anti-Kaijiu mode – kill anything that comes from the Pacific and is not confirmed normal civilian flight.

That’s all and I will keep eyes open for the developments in next weeks.

Paweł aka Ewok

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