The War that Thank God never happened! – Could Germany have won World War II if they had not attacked the Soviet Union? by John Vaughan

Perspective : Consider theMirror

In the spring of 1941 the enemy force (more than 150 divisions, about 3.8 million men) invades along the entire East Coast of the US, from Maine to Florida.

Although we have a reasonably large army, the surprise and ferocity of the attack drives US forces quickly back several hundred miles. Losses are huge: Entire US army groups are destroyed and captured.

By December of 1942, enemy forces have advanced across a front line which extends from Chicago in the North to Houston in the South. They are at the gates of the US capital, which is now in St Louis. They occupy or besiege most of the major US cities.

Still smarting from our failed-but-bloody attempt to invade them a couple of years ago, the Canadians are now allied with the enemy. They occupy US forces across our northern border and assist in the siege of Chicago.

Although Chicago withstands the siege for 900 days, hundreds of thousands die of starvation and cold. The Great Lakes are a tomb for uncounted supply vehicles and troops lost in attempts to lift the siege. An estimated 1.5 million, both civilian and military, die. Only 700,000 people were left alive of a 3.5 million pre-war population.

The enemy attempts to seize the rich oil reserves in the SouthWest, but are stopped in the winter siege of Houston, in which one of their armies is destroyed.

The enemy uses racial and ethnic hatred against the civilians in the occupied areas. Fierce partisan resistance results in cycles of war crimes against the civilian population.

A huge proportion of the major population and industrial centers were occupied and the civilian population was displaced.

Military deaths: 10 million

Civilian deaths due to military action, as well as famine and disease: 16 million

Almost 14% of total population is killed

“During the first 6 months of the invasion, [enemy] forces managed to occupy or isolate territory which prior to WWII accounted for over 60% of total coal, pig iron, and aluminum production. Nearly 40% of total grain production and 60% of total livestock was lost. Moreover, this area contained 40% [of the] population before the war, 32% of the state enterprise labor force, and one-third of the fixed capital assets of the state enterprise sector.” — from Wikipedia

This is pretty much what happened to Russia in WWII:

(The preceding story is all true, except for the names.)

  • USA = USSR
  • Chicago = Leningrad
  • Houston = Stalingrad
  • St Louis = Moscow
  • Canada = Finland

Ratio of Axis forces dedicated to Eastern Front at least 4:1. Allied commanders agreed that without active Russian involvement, losses in Allied invasion in West would have been almost unsustainably heavy.

Addendum (less than a day after posting):

Wow. Thousands of views and hundreds of upvotes. Am delighted to see the activity. A little disappointed to see the continuing and relentless focus on ‘how and why the Axis forces could never carry out an amphibious invasion of the US’.

Kudos to Scott Kanna and Ron Larson for ‘splainin’ it:

  • “the author was just describing what happened to the USSR during Operation Barbarossa so an American audience would understand what happened to the Russians in WWII.”
  • “Commentators… The story was an analog. You have to suspend your trans-Atlantic issues and just assume that Germany had total access to the coast.”

Yup. That’s one reason why I never refer to Germany or the Axis in the article. It is simply ‘the enemy.”

This article recycles a hypothetical scenario which appeals to me because it simply and compellingly puts the impact of the invasion of Russia in 1941 into accessible context – especially for Americans. And this scenario really is a remarkable historical mirror.

For those who remain befuddled: It’s in the form of a limited analogy (definition below)- not a literal comparison. Do we understand the meaning of ‘analogy’?

a comparison between two things, typically for the purpose of explanation or clarification

  • a correspondence or partial similarity
  • a thing which is comparable to something else in significant respects.

The key terms here are “partial” and “in significant respects”

… as differentiated from shallow nitpicking.

Please note: Most of us grasp the undeniable fact that Russia does not have much of a coastline in the West, just as the US does not have a major landmass to the East. They never have. They never will. You win … I guess.

I tip my hand in the title of the posting of this article on my own website:

Barbarossa : USA

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