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WTFIT? Any ideas my Dear Readers?
Written by: Greg Ellifritz
I had two different friends send me messages last weekend requesting my thoughts on what policing is going to look like in the future. I thought about it quite a bit and here are my predictions.
We have to recognize that police are a part of our society as a whole. Our society is changing and those changes will drive all future changes in police work. As I see it, there are four primary cultural drivers that will affect police work in the future.
1) Protests/Police Hate- It’s becoming ever harder to be a cop. Two decades ago, there was an unwritten rule. Cops dealing with criminals was “business.” Very few folks got offended on either side. We knew the crooks were going to commit crimes. They knew we would try to catch them.
When we caught them, they usually complied. If they ran or took a poke at the officer there were no hard feelings. If you hit a cop, you knew you were going to get beaten down by his buddies or struck with a baton. That was the cost of doing business.
I remember several of the criminals with whom I threw down shaking my hand afterwards and saying “I know you were just doing your job, and you know I had to try to get away. Get me some ice for this bump on my head and I’ll cooperate with the slating process. We’re all good.”
That spirit of fair play is gone now. Now every use of force is a complaint and/or a lawsuit. Now every police shooting involves threats and protests at the officers’ houses and a doxxing of his entire family. Often these protests and threats are organized by uninvolved virtue signaling “community activists” who have no connection to the event and lack even a fundamental knowledge of the legal rules by which officers operate.
A couple decades ago there were also a few more unstated assumptions. The first is that unless an officer did something criminal or especially heinous, the community generally supported the police. Most officers believed their administration would stand up for them if they did the right thing. Now neither assumption is in play. In most communities, the residents distrust the police. Administrators now bow to community pressure to suspend or fire every officer who gets involved in some politically distasteful event.
How do you think these changing trends will affect our police force? Would you like to be a police officer in today’s environment? There will be fewer quality police candidates in the future.
2) General government “defunding” due to pandemic economic decline/collapse. The economic effects caused from Covid-19 are just beginning to become apparent. I think the economy will get far worse in the next couple years. Fewer people working means less tax money going to cities and states.
Government revenues are going to drop significantly. That effects police budgets. Then we have the active efforts to “defund” the police by cutting budgets even further. Both of these conditions will reduce police numbers, police salaries, and police equipment budgets. That will drive even more officers away from police careers.
Stats from BBC. https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51706225
3). Distrust for and politicization of all government entities. Public approval of almost all government functions is at an all time low. The generalized distrust of government and politicians will further erode the public’s support of the police and young applicants’ desire to become part of the system.
4). The rise in technology (especially surveillance and AI facial recognition technology). Within the next decade, we will see more surveillance cameras in public areas. Use of drones and “shot spotter” type systems will increase. Future criminals will not be caught by cops on patrol. They will be identified by a guy sitting at a desk running surveillance video through facial recognition software.
Once the criminal is identified, his mobile tracking device (cell phone) will be accessed with a search warrant or some type of commercial database software. Teams of armed cops will know where the criminal is at all times and will make plans to arrest him in the safest way possible.
Many of our future “cops” will be computer analysts. Those specialized analysts will be paid less than they would in the private market. They will supplement their salaries by taking bribes from wealthy constituents to use the surveillance systems to gather dirt on political enemies. Trust in the police will further erode and many police jobs will be highly politicized.
When I look at those four trends all occurring simultaneously, I can predict the generalized future of policing in America. Here’s what I prognosticate…
Fewer and fewer people will want to be cops. That will further lower hiring and training standards. Tax revenue losses and “defunding efforts” will drive salaries down and make working conditions more difficult. The only folks who will become cops in the future are those people who have no other career options.
As more and more low quality candidates are hired, public trust for the police will further erode. The police will become continually more corrupt and inept until they are almost useless.
The really good cops (and a lot of former soldiers) will move on to better paying private security positions. The rich will hire those security people as bodyguards and neighborhood patrols.
The middle class and poor well have to contend with the corrupt police system or take care of things themselves (either by vigilante or gang action.)
This is essentially how it works in many third world countries. I have lots of experience traveling in Peru, so I’ll use the capital city of Lima as an example.
In the most affluent neighborhoods you don’t see many cops. But there are professional armed security guards at all banks, many public businesses and on roving patrol in marked vehicles in the neighborhood at night.
In the poorer neighborhoods, you don’t see many cops either. They’ll respond to something serious, but don’t expect them to investigate some kind of minor property crime without a significant bribe.
Most of the lower class residents ignore any petty criminal stuff. They band up with family or friends to handle any serious business. Sometimes the residents will pay the local criminal gangs to take care of such problems instead if they have some extra cash. The bad guy gets beaten or taken out. The cops don’t work hard to find the perpetrators of these crimes because they know exactly what is happening.
Note safety differences between neighborhoods in Lima, Peru. The green zones are wealthy areas that hire private security patrols.
I predict this type of public/private division will be the most likely way things will evolve. The wealthy will take care of themselves by paying private security and bribing corrupt cops to gather dirt on enemies and political rivals. The poor will be left to handle things themselves without significant productive police presence.
It could, however, shake out another way. Instead of the public/private divide, we might see a geographical division. There will likely be pockets of effective law enforcement (generally managed by publicly elected county sheriffs) left around the country. The well off may simply move to those “safe” areas that have invested in quality public servants. Property values and home values will rapidly rise in those areas, crowding out many of the low income residents.
The wealthy will be cared for. They will either import private security to the areas where they currently live or move to the locations where a professional policing has been maintained. The middle and lower class residents will be victimized more frequently and will engage in low-key vigilante actions to handle most criminal problems.
Poorer neighborhoods in South America embed glass atop concrete walls to serve as a theft deterrent. We’ll start seeing things like that here within the next decade.
Most of you will be forced to take care of yourself and your family. Unless you are wealthy or politically connected, the cops won’t be coming to help you in the future. Your options are to improve individual skill levels to be able to personally handle violent actors, band up with friends or family to create a numerical advantage for vigilante action, or increase your economic status enough to live in a “protected” area.
I believe things are going to look very different in America 10 years from now. Most of those changes will be negative. I don’t see any way to stop it or alter the trends. Most of our country will look more like the developing world than the environment we currently enjoy. Be ready for when that occurs. It will happen far more rapidly than you might think.
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Some Military Art that I found on the Web
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Waugh during his Army service
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| Birth name | William D. Waugh |
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| Nickname(s) | “Billy”, “Mustang” |
| Born | December 1, 1929 Bastrop, Texas, United States |
| Allegiance |  United States |
| Branch/ agency |  United States Army Central Intelligence Agency |
| Years of service | 1948–1972 (Army) 1977–2005 (CIA) |
| Rank |  Sergeant major Paramilitary Operations Officer |
| Unit | 5th Special Forces Group Studies and Observations Group Special Activities Division |
| Battles/wars | Korean War Vietnam War Operation Enduring Freedom – Afghanistan (OEF-A) Operation Iraqi Freedom |
| Awards | Silver Star Legion of Merit Bronze Star Medal (4) Purple Heart (8) |
| Alma mater | |
| Other work | United States Postal Service (1972–1977) |
William D. Waugh (born December 1, 1929) is a former United States Army Special Forces soldier and Central Intelligence Agency paramilitary operations officer who served more than 50 years between the U.S. Army‘s Green Berets and the CIA’s Special Activities Division.
Early life
Waugh was born in Bastrop, Texas, on December 1, 1929. In 1945, upon meeting two local Marines who returned from the fighting in World War II, the then 15-year-old Waugh was inspired to enlist in the Marine Corps.
Knowing that it was unlikely that he would be admitted in Texas because of his young age, Waugh devised a plan to hitchhike to Los Angeles, where he believed a person had to only be 16 to enlist. He got as far as Las Cruces, New Mexico, before he was arrested for having no identification and refusing to give his name to a local police officer.
He was later released after securing enough money for a bus ticket back to Bastrop. Now committed to serving in the military once he finished school, Waugh became an excellent student at Bastrop High School, graduating in 1947 with a 4.0 grade point average.[1]
Military career
Waugh enlisted in the U.S. Army in 1948, completing basic training at Fort Ord, California, in August of that year. He was accepted into the United States Army Airborne School and became airborne qualified in December 1948. In April 1951, Waugh was assigned to the 187th Airborne Regimental Combat Team (RCT) in Korea.[2]
Special Forces
Shortly after the end of the Korean War, Waugh met two U.S. Army Special Forces members on a train in Germany, they informed him of openings for Platoon sergeants, shortly after he requested a transfer.[3] He began training for the Special Forces, and earned the Green Beret in 1954, joining the 10th Special Forces Group (SFG) in Bad Tölz, West Germany.[2]
As U.S. involvement in the Vietnam War increased, the United States began deploying Special Forces “A-teams” (Operational Detachment Alpha, or ODA, teams) to Southeast Asia in support of counterinsurgency operations against the Viet Cong (VC), North Vietnamese and other Communist forces. Waugh arrived in South Vietnam with his ODA in 1961, and began working alongside Civilian Irregular Defense Groups (CIDGs) there, as well as in Laos.
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Special Forces sleeve insignia, with “Airborne” tab
In July 1965, he was serving with 5th Special Forces Group A-team A-321 at Camp Bồng Sơn, Bình Định Province, commanded by Captain Paris Davis. Following a night raid with a Regional Forces unit on a VC encampment near Bong Son, the unit was engaged by a superior VC force.
Many of the Regional Forces soldiers refused to fight and most of the A team were injured by VC fire, including Waugh who was shot multiple times and left between the VC and U.S./South Vietnamese forces. Waugh was later rescued by Davis under fire.[4] He spent much of 1965 and 1966 recuperating at Walter Reed Hospital in Washington, D.C., eventually returning to duty with 5th Special Forces Group in 1966. He received a Silver Star and a Purple Heart (his 6th) for the battle at Bong Son.
Special Forces Regimental Insignia
At this time Waugh joined the Military Assistance Command-Vietnam Studies and Observations Group (MACV-SOG). While working for SOG, Waugh helped train Vietnamese and Cambodian forces in unconventional warfare tactics primarily directed against the North Vietnamese Army operating along the Ho Chi Minh Trail.
Prior to retirement from U.S. Army Special Forces service, Waugh was senior NCO (non-commissioned officer) of MACV-SOG’s Command & Control North (CCN) based at Marble Mountain on the South China Sea shore a few miles south of Da Nang, Vietnam. Waugh held this Command Sergeant Major role during the covert unit’s transition and name change to Task Force One Advisory Element (TF1AE). SGM Waugh conducted the first combat High Altitude, Low Opening (HALO) jump,[5] a parachuting maneuver designed for rapid, undetected insertion into hostile territory.
In October 1970, his team made a practice Combat Infiltration into the NVA owned War Zone D, in South Vietnam, for reassembly training, etc.[5] Waugh also led the last combat Special reconnaissance parachute insertion by American Army Special Forces HALO parachutists into denied territory which was occupied by communist North Vietnamese Army (NVA) troops on June 22, 1971.[2]
Waugh retired from active military duty at the rank of Sergeant Major (E-9) on February 1, 1972.[2]
CIA career
After Waugh retired from the military, he worked for the United States Postal Service until he accepted an offer in 1977 from ex-CIA officer Edwin P. Wilson to work in Libya on a contract to train that country’s special forces. This was not an Agency-endorsed assignment and Waugh might have found himself in trouble with U.S. authorities if it weren’t for the fact that he was also approached by the CIA to work for the Agency while in Libya.
The CIA tasked him with surveilling Libyan military installations and capabilities – this was of great interest to U.S. intelligence as Libya was receiving substantial military assistance from the Soviet Union at the time. This additional assignment quite possibly protected Waugh from prosecution after Wilson was later indicted and convicted in 1979 for illegally selling weapons to Libya.[6][7]
In the 1980s he was assigned to the Kwajalein Missile Range in the Marshall Islands to track Soviet small boat teams (Naval Spetsnaz: Dolfin) operating in the area and prevent them from stealing U.S. missile technology. Some of his more critical assignments took place in Khartoum, Sudan during the early 1990s, where he performed surveillance and intelligence gathering on terrorist leaders Carlos the Jackal and Osama bin Laden with Cofer Black.[7][8]
At the age of 71, Waugh participated in Operation Enduring Freedom from October to December 2001 as a member of the CIA’s Northern Alliance Liaison Team led by Gary Schroen which went into Afghanistan to work with the Northern Alliance to topple the Taliban regime and Al Qaeda at the Battle of Tora Bora.[9]
It is unknown how many missions Waugh was involved in during his career.
Education
Waugh in 2011.
In 1985, Waugh was again requested by the CIA for clandestine work. Before he took the offer, he decided to further his education, earning bachelor’s degrees in Business and Police Science from Wayland Baptist University in 1987.
He also earned a master’s degree in Interdisciplinary Studies with a specialization in criminal justice administration (MSCJA) in 1988 from Texas State University (formerly Southwest Texas State), in San Marcos, Texas.[9]
Publications
- Waugh, Billy; Keown, Tim (2004). Hunting the Jackal. William Morrow. ISBN 9780062133571.
- Jacobsen, Annie (May 2019). Surprise, Kill, Vanish; The Definitive History of Secret CIA Assassins, Armies, and Operations. Little, Brown. ISBN 9780316441438.[10]
- Confronting Iran: Securing Iraq’s Border: An Irregular Warfare Concept, A Small Wars Journal collaboration with Brig. Gen. David L. Grange (USA, ret.), Scott Swanson (military) (AKA J.T. Patten, Author), Maj. Gen. John K. Singlaub (USA, ret.) and Billy Waugh, November 10, 2007.[11]
Awards and decorations (partial list)
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Combat Infantryman Badge (two awards) |
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Special Forces Tab |
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Master Parachutist Badge |
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Military Freefall Jumpmaster Badge with gold combat jump star (5 combat jumps) |
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Vietnam Parachutist Badge |
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7 Service stripes |
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? Overseas Service Bars |
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Silver Star[12] |
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Legion of Merit |
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Bronze Star Medal with three bronze oak leaf clusters |
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Purple Heart with seven oak leaf clusters |
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Air Medal |
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Army Commendation Medal with Valor device and three oak leaf clusters |
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Army Presidential Unit Citation with oak leaf cluster (one award in 2001, SOG) |
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Good Conduct Medal (7 awards) |
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Army of Occupation Medal |
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National Defense Service Medal with one bronze service star |
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Korean Service Medal with three campaign stars |
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Armed Forces Expeditionary Medal |
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Vietnam Service Medal with Arrowhead device and six service stars |
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Republic of Korea Presidential Unit Citation |
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Vietnam Presidential Unit Citation |
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Republic of Vietnam Gallantry Cross Unit Citation |
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Republic of Vietnam Civil Actions Medal Unit Citation |
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United Nations Korea Medal |
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Vietnam Campaign Medal |
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Republic of Korea War Service Medal |
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I wish my 1885 would look as good~
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WTF is it!?!
These Exclusive Bundles Feature Five Magazines and Key Performance Upgrades at No Additional Cost
(McLean, VA – February 21, 2023) FN America, LLC is pleased to announce the release of four new promotional pistol bundles for the FN 509® and FNX™-45 Tactical that include upgrades like the FN 509 flat-faced trigger and fiber optic front sight.
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Each pistol will be packaged with three additional extended-capacity magazines, where applicable, for a total of five per pistol. The FN 509 Tactical, FN 509 Compact and FN 509 MRD will feature FN’s custom flat-faced precision trigger that breaks vertically at 90 degrees while the FN 509 MRD FOS will feature the green fiber optic front sight found only on the FN Edge Series models.
FN 5 Mag Pistol Bundle Details:
These added accessories and upgrades will be offered at no additional cost to the retail price of the standard models but will be a one-time production run and available only for a short period of time. To purchase, look for the black branded band around the grip at your local retailer. Visit fnamerica.com/promotions/5mags/ to learn more.
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Another Gee Whiz!
