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What if World War 2 was a bar fight? Profile photo for Brendan Whitson Brendan Whitson

An unassuming, relatively kind man has been sitting alone at the bar…His name is Poland and he is a regular here.

China and Korea (also regulars) are sitting at a table. They usually just hangout and keep to themselves. One is enjoying a rum and coke. The other, a red-bull vodka (respectively).

Every once in a while Poland runs into his buddies Britain and France, but neither are here at the moment. Poland being Poland, contents himself with a drink or three, wondering if his friends might show.

Japan heard that China and Korea were at the bar though. Japan figured he would show up and give them a hard time. Japan has a Napoleon Complex. He is sort of a maverick.

Italy goes to the same exact bar with his friend Germany. It’s the usual rabble. When they get there, Italy runs straight to the radio to pick a song. Germany slugs the beer as quickly as Switzerland the bartender provides them.

The USSR meets Germany at the bar. They usually hate each other, but fuck that guy Poland, just sitting there acting all innocent… They secretly agree to jump Poland when he decides to go take a piss.

Lest we forget Japan who just ripped a few shots of Sake. He is feeling nice.

Silently, Japan strikes!

He karate chops Korea and China at the point where neck meets shoulder…

This renders both men unconscious before they, or anyone else, even realizes that it happened.

Japan gives them a couple more whacks for good measure, steals their money, and doesn’t even leave enough coin to cover China and Korea’s tab… acting like any/all of this is perfectly acceptable…

Nobody else seems to care, which is absurd.

Italy walks over to Germany and grabs a seat.

While Italy was fiddling with the radio station, Germany got him a beer, even though he knows Italy prefers wine.

Italy dutifully drinks the beer.

Germany hopes beer will make Italy tougher.

Poland finally gets up to go take a piss!

Germany and The USSR quickly follow him.

While Poland is facing the wall urinal, relieving himself. Germany charges in and punches Poland from the left, and The USSR punches Poland from the right.

They totally catch him with his pants down.

Poland is knocked out cold and he might have serious brain damage.

Germany and The USSR agree to divide up Poland’s valuables, his watch, the cash in his wallet, even the ring on his finger.

As Germany and The USSR exit the bathroom France and Britain walk into the bar.

France is jacked, but his muscles are mostly for show. He is even more muscular than The USSR.

Britain is smart and he knows it. He knows his friends are less likely to get in trouble if he goes with them. They were supposed to meet Poland but they were not known for their timeliness.

Oh well, sorry Poland.

They go to the bar to grab a drink.

Germany and The USSR walk by France and Britain. It is fairly awkward because two of these guys do not get along well.

Germany says something about France’s mom.

France fires back and says something about Germany’s sister.

They get up in each other’s face. Most of the shit talking is incoherent. Their accents are thick, and they insist on talking over one another while pointing in random directions.

Britain just asks everyone to calm down and make some concessions. He wants to appease everyone, and wants to talk this out.

The USSR does not really want any part in the argument and walks away. He just keeps walking back to his seat. He just saw Finland walk in and he fucking hates Finland (because Finland exists).

With a glass of wine now in hand, Italy shouts encouragement to Germany over Italy’s shoulder. That’s what it sounded like at least. Italy is standing over near the radio again turning knobs. He’s searching for a radio station to listen in on a football match.

The USSR decides now is his chance to pick on little Finland. He fucking hates Finland for simply existing, and everyone else seems distracted at the moment.

He walks right over to Finland (who is sitting down drinking a brewski).

Finland gives The USSR more than he bargained for though.

While sitting down drinking a beer mind you, Finland kicks The USSR in the knee really fucking hard. The USSR lunges for him but “Fin” slides under the table and pops out on the other side.

Finland then finishes his beer and gives The USSR the middle finger.

The USSR looks like a bitch in front of his tough German friend.

Boom! Just across the bar Germany punches France straight in the gut, where he least expected. No one saw it coming. France goes down faster than anyone would have thought. Then Germany swings at Britain, but Britain dodges it and ducks out of the bar.

Britain is thinking to himself, ’holy cannoli that escalated rather quickly I dare say.’

He needs to regroup and gather his wits about him.

France is somehow already down and out for the count.

Germany rallies a few more of the Central Europeans sitting at some tables around the bar. They include Austria, Romania, and Hungary to name a few.

They join in because they want Germany to like them, and they do not want him to knock them out like he did to France. A few saw what happened to Poland and they told everybody else.

They’re a bunch of kiss-asses.

That cocky American has been drinking at the bar with his good pal The Philippines.

These two always go for the cheaper beer so they can drink them in quantity. They are trying to ignore most of this seemingly petty nonsense but the booze are getting the best of them.

It seems like Switzerland the bartender is fine with letting them drink to their hearts content.

Germany gathers his new friends. They happen over to the bar to grab more beers from Switzerland the bartender as well.

But “guess who’s back… back again?”

No it’s not Slim Shady, it’s Great Britain!

Britain rolls through. He gathered his wits, and he’s back for a good scrap. Britain shouts for Canada, Australia, New Zealand, India and America to come over to his side of the bar and help a brother out.

To Britain’s credit, he was willing to stand alone either way.

“Bully!”

America decides to go drink a beer with his buddies because fuck bullies.

America and Germany are uncomfortably close to each other now.

It’s actually rather awkward… America wants to help France, China, and Korea get back up, but Germany is not about to let that happen.

Japan feels like America needs to mind his own business and go back to his spot on the other side of the bar.

Suddenly, and without warning, Germany grabs a bowl of bar nuts and starts throwing them at Britain.

Britain starts throwing bar nuts back at Germany…

Honestly, at this point they are throwing any small to medium sized objects that they can get their hands on. Few projectiles actually hit their intended targets!

Switzerland is beside himself.

America wants to go back to his seat at the moment and enjoy his beer/s away from the ruckus and hubbub. He makes a point to give Britain an extra bowl of his fresh popcorn on the way though.

Germany notices this! He wants fresh popcorn too! What’s America’s deal!?

Germany throws bar nuts at America and pretends it wasn’t him…

Luckily, America gets back to his seat. His seat is pretty far away from Germany, so he knows he is safe for now (safe from Germany’s beer nuts at least).

Canada to his credit, endures further onslaught afield.

However, Germany’s supply of beer nuts are dwindling, and without them, he will struggle to regain the initiative!

Consequently, Germany has been contemplating the fact that The USSR has something like half of Poland’s stuff…

Germany wants ALL of Poland’s stuff (Poland had some nice stuff). He also noticed that The USSR has a slight limp now. Finland might have shown The USSR to be weaker than Germany first thought…

Could this be the opportune moment to strike?

Germany feels confident he can take on The USSR now. The USSR even sees Germany coming from across the bar and does absolutely nothing about it. He does not think Germany “has the balls.”

Nonetheless, Germany full hand bitch slaps the Soviet straight across the face, followed by a strong knee to the testicles (with surprisingly little resistance).

The USSR takes a knee, holding his genitals.

Japan runs over to Germany and says “nice one man.” Japan fucking hates The USSR more than anyone else, except maybe Finland.

Japan high fives Germany and pretty soon they are standing back to back. This is a new friendship because they used to fight each other.

It will have to do.

America, Australia, and the boys (finally) decide it’s time to help China and Korea.

Their friend The Philippines could use some help too, now that you mention it.

Basically anyone with arm’s reach of Japan has taken a few whacks.

Consequently, America tries convincing Switzerland the bartender to stop serving Japan and Germany any alcohol.

The majority of the bar is in agreement, and their supplies of alcohol begin to dwindle down to precarious levels. Switzerland is no longer inclined to replenish their stocks.

Japan and Germany are definitely going to need more alcohol (and bar nuts).

America turns to point and yell at Japan, but SMASH!!

Japan cracks a bottle across the back of America’s head then lunges after The Philippines.

“Who is America to tell anyone else how much they can have to drink!? Who said Budweiser is the ‘King’ of Beers!?”

America stumbles. The Philippines gets thoroughly pummeled in retaliation.

Germany basically refuses to realize he might be screwed now. He picked a fight with half the bar, and that is probably not exaggeration. His friends include some Central Europeans, Japan…who just took a cheap shot at America and The Philippines.

And Italy… who abruptly tries to stand and put up a fight for a change, mumbles something incoherent, only to fall face first into a table.

It would seem the table dealt more damage to Italy than Italy dealt to the table.

Take note, Italy probably should not have mixed beer and wine. He is thoroughly passed out.

You could blame Germany for that, but Italy is responsible for his own decisions.

Everyone else goes back to their altercations. Italy is left alone… but Germany’s rear is now exposed as a consequence.

Japan has his hands full fighting America who is “wicked pissed off,” and sobering up.

He figures Japan has been a real pickle, and America is going to light Japan up if he can. Japan always puts up a good fight, but he is smaller than America.

Meanwhile, The USSR finds his footing again. He gets back up, albeit slowly. He wants to confront both Germany, and Finland. The USSR is still feeling those last hits though and has to take it slow. His balls still hurt, but the fact that he is still in the fight is a commendable feat unto itself.

Germany has to focus on The USSR now. He sees the look on the guys face, realizing that he really pissed The USSR off…

(Actual picture of The Soviet Union’s face after getting kicked in the balls by Germany)

Credit – Revenant


…Germany should have thought this through more thoroughly.

Shit.

Germany is trying to figure out how to best deal with The USSR. One would assume that after getting full-hand bitch slapped in the face, and kneed in the testicles, The USSR would have given up (most others would have).

Italy is still laying face down, knocked out cold, and unable to provide support in any meaningful capacity. He is unresponsive, but is clearly alive as evidenced by his rising and falling chest (indicative that Italy is in fact still breathing). Again this was largely self-inflicted.

Meanwhile, France tries to sit back up and Germany does not like this, not one bit. His attention is now divided.

America, Britain, Canada and company go over to France to help him to his feet, briefly tripping over Italy along the way.

As the Allies get close, Germany and his friends throw what few projectiles they have left. It’s a mess.

Luckily, no one has a nut allergy.

The popcorn leaves stains on everyone’s trousers though.

After running out of said projectiles, Germany attempts to kick France while he is still down. He’s a sore sport.

America, Britain, and Canada are determined to help France tho.

“Don’t make us come over there.”

Germany just stands there and taunts them with his schnitzel, calling their bluff.

So… America, Britain and Canada go over there.

Germany is now officially fucked. He should not have waved his schnitzel around like that.

France begins to get back up. And with the help of his friends, a tenuous grip on the counter, and some much needed wine, France rises to his feet.

France is wobbly but he should be alright if he has some time to get his bearings and resuscitate his pride.

Japan would go back up Germany, but he is on the other side of the bar dealing with his own problems, which are compounding.

America is a tough opponent by himself, but now he’s linked up with his home boys Australia, New Zealand, Britain, Canada, and The Philippines.

Japan steadily loses ground, but viciously, savagely defends every inch.

The USSR and Germany are duking it out now. Every once in a while, Germany manages a nice counter blow, yet this does nothing to stop The USSR.

It’s a truly epic fight of historical proportions. But, Germany has overextended himself… once again. He should’ve learned his lesson from Napoleon a century prior. You don’t attack Russia, especially in winter, unless you’re stupid and/or have a death wish.

(Note the Soviet Union is pictured in red/orange and Nazi Germany is pictured in white)


Germany’s energy is running dangerously low, he is overextended, and things are rapidly getting worse.

It is clear that Germany will lose, it’s only a matter of time. Determined to fight to the bitter end, he has two options; Keep getting his ass beat, or surrender. Most would quit by now, but not Germany.

Against all sensibility, Germany opts to get his ass kicked for a bit longer, but he finally falls to the combined force of the Allies after a few last-ditch haymakers for good measure.

From the looks of it Britain, France, America, and The USSR literally had to beat the Nazi out of him.

A new world definition to hanged-drawn-quartered.

However, they were too late to save the roughly 7-12 million innocent people (give or take) that Germany had exterminated… The numbers vary. Either way, it’s really fucked up.

Suffice to say, Germany is kaputt…

America and the boys still have their hands full with Japan though. Japan has put up a good fight, but he is steadily losing ground.

America is now determined to finish the fight at all cost, but Japan has no intention to surrender.

After repeated warnings (and pamphlets tossed about the establishment), America connects one… and then two haymakers with the chin of Japan. Both landed in quick succession. Japan gets rocked, and the aftermath is just as bad. The guy loses several teeth and bites clean through his tongue. He is concussed, bleeding, and clearly traumatized from the attacks.

An eerie, weird silence then ensues.

Japan knows that The USSR fought with America, Britain and their pals to beat up Germany and his friends. Japan also saw what happened to Poland.

Soon The USSR would come after Japan too.

Japan, tempted by Seppuku, wisely chooses to surrender to America instead.

It was a previously unthinkable act.

Everybody is stunned…

Everybody except Italy, who is somehow upright and drinking again… a warrior in his own right.

Much of the bar is once again destroyed, bodies lay strewn about, but the fight is finally over.

Hopefully nothing like this ever happens again, but humans are notoriously stupid and forgetful so who knows.

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The Horror! War

The cost in the Ukraine

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War

Race Of Logistics: NATO’s Military-Industrial Crisis Tyler Durden’s Photo BY TYLER DURDEN

Authored by Andrew Korybko via The Automatic Earth blog,

Speculation has been swirling over the past month about why the US-led West’s Golden Billion so decisively shifted its “official narrative” about the Ukrainian Conflict from prematurely celebrating Kiev’s supposedly “inevitable” victory to seriously warning about its potential loss in this proxy war.

This took the form of related remarks from the Polish Prime MinisterPresident, and Army Chief as well as the US’ Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, after which the New York Times admitted that the sanctions failed.

The reason why they decided to so decisively shift the “official narrative” was because NATO’s military-industrial crisis, which the New York Times warned about last November and was then touched upon by Biden’s Naval Secretary last month, finally became undeniable. Putting all prior speculation about this to rest, NATO’s Secretary-General declared a so-called “race of logistics” against Russia on Monday precisely on this pretext and thus confirmed the bloc’s crippling military-industrial crisis.

According to the transcript of Jens Stoltenberg’s pre-ministerial press conference that was shared by NATO’s official website ahead of his meeting with this anti-Russian alliance’s Defense Ministers, he said the following of relevance to this subject:

“It is clear that we are in a race of logistics. Key capabilities like ammunition, fuel, and spare parts must reach Ukraine before Russia can seize the initiative on the battlefield.

 

 Ministers will also focus on ways to increase our defence industrial capacity and replenish stockpiles. The war in Ukraine is consuming an enormous amount of munitions, and depleting Allied stockpiles. The current rate of Ukraine’s ammunition expenditure is many times higher than our current rate of production. This puts our defence industries under strain.

 

For example, the waiting time for large-calibre ammunition has increased from 12 to 28 months.

Orders placed today would only be delivered two-and-a-half years later. So we need to ramp up production. And invest in our production capacity.

 

 Well, this is an issue we started to address last year, because we saw that an enormous amount of support for Ukraine, the only way to deliver that was to dig into our existing stocks. But of course, in the long run, we cannot continue to do that we need to produce more, to be able to deliver sufficient ammunition to Ukraine, but at the same time, ensure that we have enough ammunition to protect and defend all NATO Allies, every inch of Allied territory.

 

 Of course, in the short run, the industry can increase production by having more shifts, by using existing production facilities more. But really to have a significant increase, they need to invest and build new plans. And we see a combination both of utilizing existing capacity more and also by making decisions to invest in increased capacity. This has started but we need more.

 So what I said was that the current rate of ammunition consumption is higher, bigger than the current rate of production. That’s a factual thing. But since we have been aware of that for some time, we have started to do something. We’re not just sitting there idle and watching this happening.  

 And of course the industry has the capability to increase the production also short term, sometimes this on some non-used or not utilized capability there. But even when you have a factory running, you can have more shifts. You can even work during weekends.

 

 So yes, we have a challenge. Yes, we have a problem. But problems are there to be solved and we are addressing that problem and we have strategies to solve it both in the short term and also longer term to as a mobilized defense industry. And if there’s anything NATO Allies, and our economies and our societies have proved over decades, is that we are dynamic, we are adaptable, we can change when needed.

 

 And let me also add, of course this is –the challenge of having enough ammunition is also a big challenge for Russia. So it just shows that this is a war of attrition, and the war to attrition becomes a battle of logistics and we focus on the logistical part of the defence capacity, defence industry capacity to ramp up production.”

As proven by Stoltenberg’s press conference, there should thus be no doubt that NATO is experiencing an unprecedented military-industrial crisis, which is responsible for reshaping its members’ narratives and overall strategy towards the Ukrainian Conflict.

This self-declared “race of logistics”, which he also described as a “war of attrition”, first of all proves that the bloc wasn’t prepared for waging a prolonged proxy war against Russia otherwise they’d have preemptively retooled their military-industrial complexes accordingly. The New York Times’ recent admission that the anti-Russian sanctions are a failure also suggests that NATO completely miscalculated in this respect by expecting Russia to collapse as a result of those restrictions, which didn’t happen.

These two factors add crucial context to why the Golden Billion’s “official narrative” about the conflict so decisively shifted over the past month. They simply can’t sustain the pace, scale, and scope of their armed assistance to Kiev, especially not after their much-ballyhooed sanctions failed to catalyze Russia’s economic collapse or at the very least give their proxy an edge in this “race of logistics”/”war of attrition”. As a result, they were forced to change how they present this conflict to their people.

Most tellingly, the Polish President didn’t rule out the scenario of Kiev making territorial concessions to Russia in his recent interview with Le Figaro, which he said should solely be that country’s choice to make and not anti-war Republicans’. Even Stoltenberg let slip during his latest press conference that “we must continue to provide Ukraine with what it needs to win. And to achieve a just and sustainable peace”, which also didn’t include his usual explicit condemnation of the territorial concession scenario.

That selfsame “just and sustainable peace”, according to the Jerusalem Post’s Dave Anderson, can actually be achieved by Kiev finally giving up its territorial claims. In his opinion piece about how “Ukraine can win against Russia by giving up land, not killing troops”, which was coincidentally published on the same day as Stoltenberg’s press conference, he argued that this swift resolution of Ukraine’s territorial disputes with Russia could result in its accelerated admission to NATO.

That outcome would thus sustainably ensure its security, thereby representing a victory over Russia, at least according to Anderson’s view. In the broader context of this analysis and in particular the interpretation of Stoltenberg’s remarks from his latest press conference, his article can thus be seen as the latest contribution to decisively shifting the “official narrative” about the Ukrainian Conflict in the direction of preconditioning the Western public to accept some sort of “compromise” with Russia.

All of this, the reader should be reminded, is occurring because of NATO’s military-industrial crisis hamstringing its members’ capabilities to sustain their bloc’s pace, scale, and scope of armed assistance to Kiev. Their “race of logistics”/“war of attrition” against Russia is obviously trending towards Moscow’s favor after that Eurasian Great Power proved that it truly has the wherewithal to sustain the pace, scale, and scope of its special operation in spite of the Golden Billion’s unparalleled sanctions against it.

If someone still remained in denial about the existence of NATO’s military-industrial crisis in spite of Stoltenberg’s surprisingly candid admission on Monday, then they should also be made aware of Politico’s exclusive report that was published on the same day, which reinforced his claim. Four unnamed US officials told this outlet that their country can’t send Kiev its requested “Army Tactical Missile Systems” (ATACMS) because “it doesn’t have any [of them] to spare”.

This revelation should thus serve as the proverbial “icing on the cake” proving that NATO is in the midst of such a serious military-industrial crisis right now that its US leader itself can’t even afford to spare important munitions that could give its proxies in Kiev the edge that they so desperately need right now. What’s so stunning about this strategic dynamic is that the combined military-industrial capabilities of the bloc’s two and a half dozen countries can’t compete with their single Russian adversary’s.

That insight in turn shows just how mighty Russia’s military-industrial complex is that it’s still capable of sustaining the same pace, scale, and scope of the ongoing special operation in Ukraine despite the sanctions against it while 30 Golden Billion countries can’t collectively do the same. Should its rumored full-scale offensive transpire, then it’s likely to deal a deathblow to NATO’s proxies due to Russia’s edge in this “race of logistics”/”war of attrition” and thus force them to finally cede their disputed regions.

*  *  *

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All About Guns War

Why is Ukrainian Artillery so effective?

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Art Soldiering War

One of the first fights at the Battle of Mons 1914

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Soldiering This great Nation & Its People War

U.S. ARMY 25th INFANTRY DIVISION IN VIETNAM 1966-68 “READY TO STRIKE

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All About Guns Anti Civil Rights ideas & "Friends" War

THE FGC-9 IN MYANMAR: 3D GUNS AND THE FUTURE OF GUERILLA WARFARE by Travis Pike

February 1st, 2021, is the day the Myanmar military seized power, which immediately led to civil unrest. That unrest began as peaceful, pro-democracy street demonstrations, but in short order, peaceful demonstrations gave way to guerilla warfare. The situation evolved and changed rapidly due to an ever-escalating and violent military-lead government. Now it seems the power of the internet has delivered a Christmas present to Guerilla fighters in Myanmar, in the form of the FGC-9.

Government forces outnumber and out-arm the Myanmar guerillas by a wide margin, and have made use of machine guns, rockets, and tanks over the past year of conflict. The Guerrillas constantly find themselves outclassed by the government’s superior firepower, and have been searching for a means to turn the tide.

Myanmar People’s Defence Forces fighter with a 3D-printed 9mm FGC-9 PCC posted to social media in recent weeks.

After the military showed they were completely willing to be brutal to peaceful protesters, killing some in the street and leaving others to disappear outside the view of the public, some of the people of Myanmar began to seek out arms to protect themselves and potentially even mount a real resistance. Unfortunately, obtaining firearms isn’t easy. So, they did what Guerrillas around the world have practically always done — they made their own.

Making one’s own firearms is a long-held tradition of guerilla fighters. In fact, this was common practice during the revolutionary war, where colonial Americans built rifles in secret to resist the King’s men. However, technology has changed, and instead of building weapons the old fashioned way, now the people of Myanmar have begun 3D printing firearms, specifically a design known as the FGC-9.

Related: Aerobics instructor catches Myanmar coup kicking off in workout video

What’s an FGC-9?

Well, if you follow Jake Hanrahan of Popular Front, you might have seen an episode on 3D-printed guns in 2020. A man going by the name JStark1809 showed a 3D-printed semi-automatic 9mm carbine. JStark1809 lived in a European country that heavily regulates the ownership of firearms.

He served as the primary designer of the FGC-9, but a community of firearm enthusiasts helped along the way. His goal was to produce a firearm that could be printed and wouldn’t require any regulated parts and pieces. The FGC-9 can be produced quite easily by those with the right equipment, using materials that aren’t difficult to come by.

The FGC-9 is a closed bolt, semi-automatic design that utilizes the 9mm round. For a 3D-printed gun, it’s rather refined and well made. It’s easy to see why the guerillas in Myanmar are turning to this weapon. They can print and machine the parts as needed and arm their guerilla efficiently, and the technology isn’t as unfamiliar to many involved as one might expect.

The people of Myanmar have used 3D printing extensively for things like replacing parts in their farming equipment in a more cost effective manner, so its really no surprise they’ve moved on to printing guns under their current circumstances.

Related: The strangest Spec-Ops firearms in SOCOM’s armory

The Modern Liberator

Three pictures from Myanmar reportedly show guerillas armed with FGC-9 carbines and a display of the carbines they’re building. Currently, 3D-printed guns aren’t long-use weapons. Some have lasted over a thousand rounds, which is impressive, but military weapons last for tens of thousands of rounds. I’d imagine the FGC-9 acts like a modern Liberator pistol.

The Liberator concept came to be in World War 2. The idea was to mass-produce cheap single-shot pistols and drop them into occupied areas. Here guerillas could retrieve them and use them to ambush Nazis. Then, they could steal better weapons and continue their operations.

Liberator FP-45

The FGC-9 will likely serve as a short use weapon as well. That is, until the guerillas can retrieve better weapons, either through external support or looted from the bodies of troops they’ve killed. And to be clear, the FGC-9 appears to be a much better weapon for the job than any Liberator.

This marks the first time a homemade 3D-printed weapon has found its way into a large-scale conflict. It represents a fascinating turn for guerrilla forces now and in the future, with far-reaching implications for practically every military force on the planet.

What effect will this weapon have in Myanmar?

It’s important to note that all we have seen are photos of the guns in what could be Myanmar. There is no confirmation, but because the military-operated government hasn’t shown much friendliness to the press or to freedom speech, most of the information out of the nation these days is speculation.

You can bet I’ll be watching this space and will update the article or write a follow-up piece as soon as more information is available.

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War

How Russia’s 35-mile armoured convoy ended in failure

A civilian north of Kyiv points to where Russian forces destroyed his homeIMAGE SOURCE,BBC / CLAIRE JUDE PRESS

Three days into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a huge 10-mile (15.5km) line of armoured vehicles was spotted by a satellite in the north of the country. The very same morning in Bucha, just outside Kyiv, 67-year-old Volodymyr Scherbynyn was standing outside his local supermarket when more than a hundred Russian military vehicles rolled into town. Both Volodymyr and the satellite were witnesses to a key part of President Vladimir Putin’s plan for a quick and overwhelming victory. They were also witnesses to its failure.

The western media called it a convoy. In reality, it was a traffic jam and a major tactical blunder. Forty-eight hours after that first satellite photograph, on 28 February 2022, the line of vehicles had grown to a colossal 35 miles (56 km) long. The vehicles were stalled for weeks. Then finally they retreated, and seemingly disappeared overnight.

What happened? Why did such a massive force fail to reach Kyiv?

A BBC team spoke to dozens of witnesses; including military personnel, national and international intelligence services, civilians, veterans, and the territorial defence, all of whom came into contact with the convoy. It also gained access to Russian maps and documents that shed light on what the plan actually was, and why it went so spectacularly wrong.

Media caption,

Satellite images of the convoy captured last year © 2022 Maxar Technologies

The first hours

The story starts on the first day of the war, in the north of Ukraine at its border with Belarus.

Stepping outside for his first cigarette of the day, 23-year-old Vladyslav from Ukraine’s 80th Air Assault Brigade saw a flurry of bright lights in the night sky.

“I remember watching the lights emerge from the whole forest. At first I thought they were car headlights. But then I realised they were Grads [self-propelled multiple missile launchers]. They were firing at us.”

Camped deep within the forest of the Chernobyl exclusion zone, Vladyslav’s unit was on patrol when the first Russian vehicles crossed into Ukraine.

“The whole earth was shaking. Have you ever been in a tank? There’s no other sound like it. It’s a powerful thing.”

As planned in the event of any attack, Vladyslav and the rest of the 80th brigade blew up the bridge connecting Chernobyl to the next big town, Ivankiv.

The Russians would be forced to waste time building a replacement pontoon bridge, giving Vladyslav and his unit time to pull back to Kyiv.

“At first I was surprised, why didn’t we stop them there in Chernobyl? But we needed to learn about our enemy. So that’s what we did.”

This close to the Belarus border, the Ukrainians could not afford to open fire and risk starting another conflict. Their priority was to first understand Russia’s battle plan, before sending their troops into the line of fire.

Putin’s master plan

What Vladyslav saw were the first vehicles of what would become the convoy.

Contrary to many media reports at the time, the 35 mile-long (56 km) column was in fact 10 separate Russian tactical battalion units, according to the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

The Russian army also attacked Ukraine in the east and south, but the mission for these 10 units was specific – enter Ukraine from Belarus, overthrow Ukraine’s capital city and remove the government. In military terms: a decapitation attack.

One Russian document, seen by the BBC, shows a timetable for the plan. After the first battalion crossed into Ukraine at 04:00 am on 24 February, their orders were to advance straight to Kyiv arriving by 14:55.

Several of the battalions were to advance to Hostomel, just north of Kyiv, to back up the troops who’d been airlifted in to secure the airport.

The rest were to head straight into the centre of Kyiv.

Luibov Demydiv (R), a pensioner from Demydiv, points on the map to where she saw the convoy circling after a bridge was destroyed, stopping their advanceIMAGE SOURCE,BBC / CLAIRE JUDE PRESS
Image caption,

Luibov Demydiv (R), a pensioner from Demydiv, points on the map to where she saw the convoy circling after a bridge was destroyed, stopping their advance

The assault heavily relied on two elements – secrecy and speed.

According to the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) (a UK-based security think tank) by keeping plans about an attack on the capital under wraps, Russian soldiers could outnumber the Ukrainian forces by 12 to one in the north of Kyiv.

However, Putin’s secrecy came at a cost. So successful was his deception, even most of his commanders did not receive their orders until 24 hours before the invasion.

On a tactical level, this left them vulnerable. They lacked food, fuel and maps. They were without proper communication tools. They had insufficient ammunition. They were even ill-prepared for the winter weather.

Kitted out with the wrong tyres and surrounded by snow, the Russians drove straight into a mud bath. Civilians close to Ivankiv describe Russian soldiers telling Ukrainian farmers to help pull their tanks out of the sludge.

Unable to progress, the Russian vehicles needed to divert to paved roads in order to avoid soft ground, forcing thousands to group into a single column.

But with limited communication between the battalions, they almost immediately converged into one almighty traffic jam.

As one military expert on the ground put it: “You don’t ever travel into hostile territory in a long convoy. Ever.”

Based on witness testimony and intelligence from the Ukrainian military, we were able to map the ground the convoy covered in the time between the outbreak of war and the end of March. By avoiding travelling across fields, vehicles ended up on most of the main roads north of Kyiv.

A map showing all the roads where the convoy travelled during February to March 2022

By the time the column had grown as long as 35 miles (56 km) it included up to 1,000 tanks, 2,400 mechanised infantry vehicles and 10,000 personnel, as well as dozens of supply trucks carrying food, fuel, oil and ammunition.

Stalled north of Kyiv and running out of food and fuel, the Russians had also underestimated their adversary.

A united resistance

For three days Volodymyr Scherbynyn and his fellow volunteers, the majority of them pensioners, had been preparing for the arrival of the convoy in their hometown of Bucha.

Armed with one machine gun between the 12 of them, they took down all the road signs, built checkpoints, and prepared hundreds of petrol bombs.

Until finally, on Sunday morning the Russian tanks rolled into town.

Maksym (L) Volodymyr (C) and 'the colonel' (R) stand in front of their bombed out office for local volunteersIMAGE SOURCE,BBC / CLAIRE JUDE PRESS
Image caption,

Maksym (L) Volodymyr (C) and ‘”the colonel” (R) stand in front of their bombed out office for local volunteers

For nearly 30 minutes, Volodymyr and his grassroots unit battered the tanks with what little they had.

“We set two of the vehicles on fire and slowed down the whole convoy,” says Volodymyr.

But then came the retaliation.

“When they saw us throwing bottles they opened fire,” says 30-year-old Maksym Shkoropar. “I was a barman. I didn’t have any military training.”

By the end of that half hour, every one of Volodymyr’s party had been shot and evacuated to hospital.

But even from the sick bay, Volodymyr kept on fighting – receiving and cross-checking sightings of the convoy from civilians all over the Kyiv region and calling them in to the Ukrainian authorities.

On the other end of the line was 23-year-old local deputy governor for Irpin, Roman Pohorily.

Lawyer and councillor by day, Roman searches for Russian posts on social media by night.IMAGE SOURCE,BBC / CLAIRE JUDE PRESS
Image caption,

Lawyer and councillor by day, Roman searches for Russian posts on social media by night.

He tells the BBC he didn’t sleep for three days.

“My colleague and I were manning the hotline at the council office, taking calls about the column, as well as saboteurs – people who were painting marks on the ground for the convoy to follow.”

A councillor by day, Roman is also an open source intelligence expert by night. Co-founder of the highly regarded website DeepState, he pools together social media and intelligence reports. He geolocates them, then reposts them on his website.

“On their way to Kyiv, the Russians were posting videos on social media. We reposted the videos to expose their movements. They were just showing off, but in doing so, they got busted.”

Most important during the assault on Kyiv, says Roman, was the sense of a united Ukraine.

Ukrainian volunteers distributing foodIMAGE SOURCE,BBC / CLAIRE JUDE PRESS
Image caption,

Ukrainian volunteers distributing food

“Everyone was doing something. I admit it was very hectic in those first few days. But there were veterans helping civilians. Everyone wanted to defend their city.”

In towns and villages all across the region, hundreds of attacks took place against the convoy, from civilians armed with homemade weapons to mechanised infantry and artillery.

Outdated tactics

In stark contrast to the Ukrainians, the Russian forces repeatedly exposed their inability to make dynamic decisions on the ground.

“The Russians were all carrying large metal boxes marked ‘secret’,” says Vladyslav from the 80th Brigade. “We seized one during an ambush. We found their maps marked with their entire route. After that we knew their whole strategy.”

Their navigation tools were also woefully out of date. In the year since the invasion, the BBC has continued to find maps left behind by Russian troops that date back to the 1960s and 70s. Whole towns exist now that were not on the maps that they were using to navigate. We also found semaphore flags, a vastly outdated way to communicate between units.

One successful tactic by the Ukrainian resistance was to blow up bridges and dams ahead of the convoy, thus forcing the Russians to reroute. Reliant on old maps and with limited communications back to their high command, the Russian units frequently became paralysed by indecision.

Several satellite images show the Russian vehicles literally driving round and around in circles.

Maxar satellite image of the convoyIMAGE SOURCE,MAXAR TECHNOLOGIES 2022

Occupation

Under pressure from Ukrainian air strikes and artillery, the Russian convoy was finally brought to a standstill just outside of Kyiv’s city boundary. For thousands of civilians living close to the stalled troops, the experience was horrendous.

“They robbed everything from everywhere. They emptied the shops,” says Vladyslav. “They also used civilians as human shields.”

What happened in many villages and towns to the north and west of Kyiv is still being investigated by numerous authorities, including the International Criminal Court.

After four long weeks the Russians finally started to withdraw.

Two of the largest remaining battalions were defeated close to Hostomel airport. Another 370 tented army trucks, seemingly abandoned in Zdvizhivka village, were destroyed by artillery.

The Ukrainian military kept on pushing them back until 19 March, after which the Russians began to retreat from Kyiv Oblast.

A graveyard of Russian vehicles from the convoy piled high in HostomelIMAGE SOURCE,BBC / CLAIRE JUDE PRESS
Image caption,

A graveyard of Russian vehicles from the convoy piled high in Hostomel

Russia is continuing to push into the eastern industrial heartland of Donbas, and strike in the south, in the direction of the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions.

Despite the speculation of a renewed attack on Kyiv, the majority of experts agree it would be unlikely as we have not seen a large-scale deployment of Russian troops to the Belarus border.

But still watching via reconnaissance drones close to the border, are the Ukrainian recruits.

“I’ll always remember that night in Chernobyl,” says Vladyslav. “When I went out to smoke with my friend. But by the time I’d finished my cigarette the war had started.

“My friend and I have this dream, that we will go on shift, just like we did that day, and as we smoke another cigarette we will hear that the war has ended. And that we won.”

Special thanks to Slava Shramovych, Marcus Buckley, Michael Whelan, Alastair Thompson, Ben Allen and Tim Coey.

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