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A Victory! Hard Nosed Folks Both Good & Bad Leadership of the highest kind Manly Stuff Real men Some Red Hot Gospel there! Stand & Deliver This great Nation & Its People

This day off brought to you by G. Washington!

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A Victory!

Happy Independence Day! WARNING: Cannons may make dogs bark, scare your mom, leave your neighbor dumbfounded, make cats panic, wake you up in the middle of the night shouting at the top of your lungs because you think you are being robbed, scare the crap out of you, and/or blow up your ears and brains; among other things…

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War You have to be kidding, right!?!

This sounds to me like the Old Yellow Peril fears of the pre WWI Period

Gordon Chang: China’s ‘shock troops’ now inside U.S.

‘On 1st day of war in Asia,’ they will ‘poison reservoirs, assassinate officials, create terror’

A Chinese military warrior (Video screenshot)

A Chinese military warrior (Video screenshot)

China’s “shock troops” already are inside the United States.

And “the concern is that, on the first day of war in Asia they will take down America’s power lines, poison reservoirs, assassinate officials, start wildfires, spread pathogens, and create terror by bombing shopping malls and supermarkets.”

That’s the warning from Gordon G. Change, the author of “The Coming Collapse of China” and a Gatestone Institute distinguished senior fellow.

He wrote at the institute, where he is on its advisory board, that Chinese migrants are gaining entry to the U.S. through the southern border, in “unprecedented numbers.”

“Once here, the military fighters can link up with China’s agents already in place or Chinese diplomats,” he said, estimated their numbers already had 5,000 to 10,000.

He cited Richard Fisher, of the International Assessment and Strategy Center, who told Gatestone recently, “When the Chinese Communist Party starts its war against Taiwan and the United States, Americans should expect that Chinese sleeper agents now in America will hit targets like gas stations and military-age Chinese now crossing our border will be mobilized for assassination attacks and assaults on U.S. military bases.”

That means, “The next war in Asia will almost certainly be fought on U.S. soil, perhaps on its first day. Unsuspecting Americans will be in the fight.”

He explained, “U.S. Customs and Border Protection reports that the number of apprehensions of Chinese migrants in the first five months of the current federal fiscal year was more than double that during all of the last fiscal year. The 8,000 Chinese migrants apprehended this calendar year are more than quadruple the number apprehended in the comparable period a year ago.”

They’re flying to Ecuador, which allows entry, and they then make their way through Columbia and Panama.

And he warned, “Some migrants are almost certainly members of China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA). Representative Mark Green (R-Tenn.), chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee, said at a press conference on the 14th of this month that a Border Patrol sector chief informed him that some of the Chinese migrants at the southern border have ‘known ties to the PLA.'”

On reaching the United States, under Joe Biden administration’s programs, they are simply “released into America.”

He noted China “has already been probing sensitive installations. Chinese agents posing as tourists have, for instance, intruded into bases, including the Army’s Fort Wainwright in Fairbanks, Alaska. There, the suspected Chinese agents drove past a base gate and were later apprehended with a drone inside their car.”

Green explained, “We have no idea who these people are, and it’s very likely, using Russia’s template of sending military personnel into Ukraine, China is doing the same into the United States.”

—————————————————————————————- I am willing to bet that even if this BS is true. In that about 90% of these so called “troops” will be vastly too busy to making money to show up their at target. Hey they are just like everyone else who comes here. I.E. Money talks & Bullsh*t walks.

Also take this into consideration. In that we have a lot of heavily armed folks who would just love for this to happen. As they could then go full Rambo on these “troops”. So bottom line , talk about a suicide mission, this would be it!  My money is on it ain’t gonna happen anytime soon. Grumpy

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A Victory! You have to be kidding, right!?!

Charges Dismissed Against Man In Fatal Stabbing Of Alleged NYC Subway Menace By Daniel Chaitin

A D-line subway train arrives at the Broadway-Lafayette Street station on January 28, 2023, in New York City.
(Photo by Gary Hershorn/Getty Images)

Jordan Williams, a man charged in the fatal stabbing of another rider during a confrontation on a New York City subway train in Brooklyn, will not be prosecuted, according to officials.

A grand jury voted not to indict Williams, a 20-year-old from Queens who claimed he was acting in self-defense, on manslaughter and criminal possession of a weapon charges in connection to the June 13 encounter that left Devictor Ouedraogo dead.

“Our office conducted an impartial and thorough investigation of this tragic case, which included review of multiple videos and interviews with all available witnesses, and that evidence was fairly presented to a grand jury,” a spokesperson for the Brooklyn District Attorney’s Office said on Wednesday. “Today, the charges against Jordan Williams have been dismissed.”

The spokesperson added: “Under New York law, a person is justified in using deadly physical force when they reasonably believe it is necessary to use such force to defend themselves or others from imminent use of deadly or unlawful physical force.”

Jason Goldman, a lawyer representing Williams, had said the “victim was menacing people, as all of us have probably seen on the subway, erratic, deranged, crazy and in many people’s faces before he even encounters my client,” per CBS News.

Ouedraogo, identified as a 36-year-old homeless man with a criminal record, allegedly told riders on the subway car he was going to “erase someone” and asked Williams’s girlfriend, “Want to f***?”, The New York Post reported.

A confrontation between Ouedraogo and Williams ensued in which witnesses said Ouedraogo threw the first punch, a law enforcement source told The New York Times.

Sources told The New York Post that video footage presented to the grand jury allegedly showed Ouedraogo choking Williams and striking Williams’s girlfriend in the face.

The clash allegedly came to an end after Williams pulled out a knife and stabbed Ouedraogo.

After police responded to a 911 call and found Ouedraogo at a train station, Ouedraogo was transported to the hospital with a chest stab wound and pronounced dead. Williams was taken into custody a few stops away and later released without bail.

“I was scared in that situation,” Williams said after the grand jury declined to indict him, according to NBC New York. “I’m happy that I can get on with my life the way I’d like to.”

Ouedraogo’s younger sister Marina said she believes the dismissal was “just wrong,” The New York Times reported. “It is sending a signal that basically any one of us can carry a weapon. That is basically what we are saying here.”

The fatal altercation followed another deadly New York City subway incident in which Marine veteran Daniel Penny used a headlock restraint on Jordan Neely, a homeless man who allegedly shouted and threatened passengers, before Neely passed out and died.

Penny, who claims he acted to defend himself and otherspleaded not guilty to manslaughter and negligent homicide charges on Wednesday and was freed on $100,000 bail.

—————————————————————————————-A. While I deplore anyone getting killed, Devictor Ouedraogo discovered the principle of F*ck around & get f*cked. As he must of missed that class in the playground!

B. This happened in NYC!?! Maybe there is a slight glimmer of hope!

C. Marine veteran Daniel Penny should of taken a long vacation from school in NYC. Then go to a more friendly state that really hates to extradiate to New York. So that he could get at least a shot at a fair trial. Oh well!! Grumpy

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All About Guns The Green Machine You have to be kidding, right!?!

The Case for the A-10C by Ivan F. Ingraham (I say give them to the Army & Marines but no!! As that would freak out the USAF)

The United States Air Force’s decision to divest the A-10C “Warthog” has larger ramifications for future wars than just an airframe. The service plans to drastically reduce its capability and capacity to provide Close Air Support (CAS) to ground forces, leaving the sons and daughters of America and her allies to fight without a dedicated CAS aircraft for the first time since Vietnam.  

History First

The venerable “Warthog” is viewed by some as a Cold War relic that only exists as a jobs program for congressional representatives. This is myopic.

With nearly four decades in service, the A-10C stems from the lessons (re)learned after Vietnam. From inception, the A-10C was a purpose-built CAS platform with demonstrated battlefield survivability. Because of its rugged design paired with heavy and diverse payloads of modern stand-off decoys and weapons, each A-10C delivers more firepower to support ground forces than its fighter counterparts. Further, its AAR-47 missile warning system is especially effective at defeating nearly all Man-Portable Air Defense Systems (MANPADS).

I spent a 24-year career as a Marine Infantry Officer, later transitioning to Marine Special Operations Command (MARSOC), commanding at the Team, Platoon, and Company levels in both Joint and Combined combat environments.

On September 26, 2007, my platoon was on the receiving end of a complex ambush against an entrenched enemy. We fought our way out, often engaging enemy fighters inside of 100 meters and sometimes at hand-grenade range. In a difficult and violent action, we broke the back of the enemy’s assault.

We used two A-10Cs to destroy the enemy element isolated in a trench line. The A-10C’s impressive firepower and danger-close delivery of bombs facilitated the extrication of my 35-member assault force without a single U.S. casualty. This simply would not have been possible without the A-10C working in close consonance with my Joint Terminal Attack Controller (JTAC); a trained air support employment specialist.

I’m a living testament to the A-10C’s utility.

A U.S. Air Force A-10 Thunderbolt II close air support aircraft simulates its air-to-ground capabilities during the 2011 Aviation Nation Open House on Nellis Air Force Base, Nev., Nov. 12, 2011. (Tech. Sgt. Bob Sommer) Source.

The Issue

In its 2023 budget, the Air Force revealed a 5-year plan to eliminate its A-10C CAS aircraft without an adequate replacement and to cut Terminal Air Control Party Specialist/Joint Terminal Attack Controller (TACP/ JTAC) manning by 50%.

The USAF is a staunchly fighter-oriented culture where platforms like the F-35 and the NGAD fighter are touted as machines that will provide CAS and fight enemy aircraft with equal aplomb, but the Air Force’s plan will divest nearly all close support expertise, crippling America’s ability to employ airpower in close proximity to friendly forces on the ground. Ground troops would be supported by a small, expensive fleet of fragile aircraft that are far less effective at CAS than the A-10C. In low-intensity conflicts, it will cost lives. In Major Combat Operations, it risks losing battles.

Problem Framing

The U.S. is terrible at predicting the next battlespace and future wars. Having a robust quiver of options is better than eliminating a proven platform like the A-10C. Paradoxically, if the USAF follows its own doctrine to justify getting rid of the A-10C this only bolsters the case for keeping it.

No aircraft engages the enemy alone.  Much like ground forces use “combined arms” (tanks, artillery, infantry, and aviation) to prevail on land, the Air Force uses “Force Packaging” to win in the air. The four major threats to aircraft over a modern battlefield are:

  • Air (enemy fighters);
  • Radar-guided Surface-Air Missiles (SAMs)
  • Air Defense Artillery (ADA), and;
  • Man-portable Air Defense Systems (MANPADS)

The Air Force spends a lot of taxpayer dollars to ensure its fighter team (F-16; F-15EX; F-22; and F-35) can kill or negate enemy aircraft and radar SAMs, but the sensitive skins, engines, and reduced capacity for flares make these aircraft extremely vulnerable to ADA and MANPADS. In contrast, the A-10C is by far the most survivable aircraft against ADA and MANPAD threats found directly above the battlefield and is the only CAS platform specifically designed to protect ground forces in battle.

In a firefight, I sought to dominate high ground, known as “key terrain,” to achieve tactical superiority. The airspace directly overhead the battlefield is the ultimate key terrain.  An American ground commander fighting against a capable and determined adversary needs an aircraft with a massive amount of firepower and eyes on both friendly troops and the enemy. Without the A10C’s capability, the USAF cedes the most important position on the battlefield where CAS is a powerful surgical tool. I can’t imagine fighting without A-10Cs which provided me a critical advantage in a dynamic, highly-contested combat environment.

An A-10 Thunderbolt II deploys flairs over Afghanistan on Nov. 12, 2008. A-10s provide close-air support to ground troops in Afghanistan and Iraq. The A-10’s excellent maneuverability at low air speeds and altitude as well as its highly accurate weapons delivery make it an ideal aircraft for supporting coalition operations. (U.S. Air Force/photo by Staff Sgt. Aaron Allmon) Source.

Further, the A-10C was designed to operate from expeditionary airstrips. This works to the A-10C’s advantage in peer conflicts. Advanced fighter aircraft require concrete or asphalt surfaces of at least 8,000 feet in length. Countries like China will use any weapon they can, like ballistic and cruise missiles, to negate aircraft carriers and airfields capable of supporting fighters. Alternatively, the A-10C can island hop around the Pacific with a small support package and operate from 5,000 to 6,000 feet of dirt, grass, or even a short stretch of highway.

The A-10C thrives using a combination of Force Packaging and intelligent tactics, as evidenced in the 2016 deployment of the A-10C to support U.S. forces in Syria. Although Air Force leadership and Beltway pundits would prefer Congress forget about the A-10C operating within multiple surface-to-air missile engagement zones and merging with Russian fighters during Operation Inherent Resolve, the A-10C proved itself on the modern battlefield.

Dollars and Sense

The decision to divest the A-10C is not new; the platform is always considered for retirement when the USAF talks of modernization. The Air Force’s voracious spending habits force an ever-smaller fleet of overpriced aircraft; a single F-35 costs nearly $145 million, which doesn’t account for the billions of dollars spent researching and developing emerging design technologies. Once procured, F-35 operating costs are more than double that of the A-10C, with sustainment costs three times budget expectations.

The A-10C needs a tech refresh, but the aircraft is paid for, and there is little to suggest that the A-10C can’t maintain its relevance with ~$3 million each in modernization and upgrades. That is pennies on the dollar compared to the F-35; the 10-year cost to replace A-10Cs with F-35s is $68 billion. The USAF, just ten years after the initial fielding of the F-35, spent $4 billion dollars on the research and development of an engine it no longer plans to procure. For comparison, it cost less than $1 billion to build and install new wings on the entire A-10C fleet, and another $1 billion could create an all-new, digitally-enhanced A-10EX, capable of employing next-generation weapons, locating threat systems, and acting as an over-the-horizon communications node.

(U.S. Air Force photo by Airman 1st Class Benjamin Wiseman) Source.

Head-To-Head

Money aside, the Key West Agreement of 1948 charged the USAF to provide Close Air Support to the U.S. Army. The A-10Cs real benefit combines specialists (pilots) with a purpose-built airplane, and the funds used to field the A-10C were pulled from the Army’s own Close Air Support programs. Divesting the only CAS-designed aircraft in the USAF without a replacement is akin to dereliction of duty.

As a mission planner requesting CAS assets for ground operations, I was told to ask for aircraft capabilities to support my mission, rather than specific types of aircraft. Since many aircraft share capabilities (ex. ability to employ GPS-guided munitions) and there are always limited assets to meet multiple demands for CAS, focusing on capabilities creates the flexibility to draw from a variety of platforms to fulfill the requirement.

But this created an argument that U.S. ground forces don’t care what platform delivers ordnance so long as those forces receive it. Advocates of this argument fail to realize that the A-10C is the best CAS platform because of its capabilities. In fact, many JTACs cleverly requested Close Air Support assets capable of “employing forward-firing ordnance, below low weather decks, including 30-millimeter rounds.” This ensured A-10Cs; it provided capabilities no other asset could.

To that point, in June 2018 the A-10C conducted a CAS flyoff against the F-35. The results demonstrated the most effective platform to perform CAS against a peer adversary is the A-10C. The test also highlighted the force multiplication achievable by allowing A-10s to focus on supporting ground forces while fighter assets like the F-35, F-16, and F-18 act in their primary roles to counter air threats and suppress enemy air defenses.

F-35A Lightning II (U.S. Air Force photo/Staff Sgt. Madelyn Brown) Source.

After the fly-off, the A-10C bested the F-35 in CAS, Airborne Forward Air Control, and Combat Search and Rescue mission performance–both in low-threat and high-threat environments. An F-35 pilot was quoted as saying “I need F-35s on the leading edge to detect systems and provide a screen against advanced enemy fighters. I need Warthogs in-depth with the magazine firepower to smite our enemies from the face of the earth.” As a former Ground Force Commander (GFC), I agree. There are two salient reasons for this:

The A-10C has integrated modern technology. First, with four radios and four data-link options that talk to ground troops, its communications package is more compatible with ground maneuver elements than any other fighter.  And second, although some A-10Cs are equipped with the newest jam-resistant GPS, its direct-fire weapons and its pilots’ eyes-on tactics negate the effects of GPS jamming. In GPS-denied environments where communications will be severely degraded, other fighters will struggle to accurately deliver GPS-dependent weapons. This is crucial for a GFC in a close fight where seconds feel like hours.

The A-10C also provides an asymmetric advantage by providing CAS from 75 feet above ground level up to 35,000 feet MSL. With moderate speeds and an extremely tight turning radius, which reduces re-attack timelines, the A-10C is responsive, can remain close to friendly forces for long periods of time, and has flexible, forward-firing weapons. These weapons provide more options to quickly engage targets. No other aircraft provides effective CAS in the low-altitude arena, which the war in Ukraine has shown to be one of the few places CAS can be employed in contested airspace.

Unlike the F-35, which requires a prepared airfield to support GFCs from altitudes miles above the battlespace, the A-10C pilot can remain eyes-on friendly forces; enemy forces; utilize targeting pods to generate coordinates for artillery missions; and dominate an adversary in close proximity from tree-top level using 30-mm armor-piercing incendiary rounds, or from 30,000 feet and dozens of miles away using small-diameter bombs.

Air National Guard Photo. Source.

Humans Before Hardware

The A-10C program is important because it trains pilots to become experts in Joint Fires integration.  Their training is directly focused on Close Air Support, Forward Air Control, and Combat Search and Rescue, all of which are complementary missions requiring detailed knowledge of Joint Fires. On June 22, 2016, Joel Bier wrote in The National Interest, “The oncoming challenge is clear: The Air Force must collectively preserve the A-10C pilot manning pool as a force-in-being to save CAS expertise from the dilution of current training and personnel bureaucracy, regardless of its fiscally based hardware decisions.”

Further, Dan Grazier highlighted the inadequacy of CAS training in the F-35 community, showing through official USAF documents that “…no F-35 pilot of any experience level in any component of the Air Force is required to fly a single close air support training mission in 2023 or 2024.” When an aircraft is primarily responsible for destroying enemy aircraft and surface-to-air missile sites, pilots who exclusively train for those missions do not have the time to focus on supporting ground forces.  Advocacy for the A-10C is based upon its capability to provide CAS better than any other Mission Design Series. A-10C pilots and the Tactical Air Control Party community maintain that legacy.

There is also a looming 50% reduction of air-ground combat integration specialists. Tactical Air Control Party (TACP) represents the largest proportion of Joint Terminal Attack Control qualified personnel in the USAF. They are experts in Joint Fires integration and the employment of surface and air-based fires essential to successful large-scale combat operations and work directly with GFCs to employ air power. For the U.S. Army, this reduction will eliminate TACP support below the Brigade level in a large conflict. These mission-focused teams of CAS professionals habitually train with A-10C pilots to ensure the safe, proper, and expeditious employment of CAS.

U.S. Air Force Senior Airman Corban Caliguire and Tech. Sgt. Aaron Switzer, 21st Special Tactics Squadron joint terminal attack controllers, from Pope Field, N.C., look on as an A-10 Thunderbolt II releases its munitions during a close air support training mission Sept. 23, 2011, at the Nevada Test and Training Range. Source.

I worked closely with these impressive Airmen during my time in Special Operations where we have a saying that “humans are more important than hardware.” In this case, it proves particularly true, and hobbling the USAF’s TACP manning defies logic since it directly affects the Army’s ability to fight our enemies, particularly peer adversaries.

Ground combat is difficult and at times confusing. As a GFC and qualified JTAC, I could control my own air support in combat. My background and training provided a distinct advantage. I understood ground force fire and maneuver, and I could utilize air support assets to maximize my Marines’ abilities to succeed. However, as a JTAC-qualified GFC, I was the exception; trying to manage CAS while maintaining control of my unit was not optimal.

Having CAS-trained professionals in the air above me and a TACP next to me on the ground is the ideal partnership. A TACP at my side, focused on using air to achieve my intent for CAS, significantly improved my unit’s effectiveness. This is especially important in dynamic, asymmetric environments where high-altitude aircraft dropping bombs on coordinates without eyes on the battlefield will be worthless at best, and cause fratricide or civilian casualties at worst.

Loss of the A-10C and a preponderance of TACPs will create a huge gap wherein a dedicated CAS team doesn’t exist for use in combat like the ongoing war in Ukraine; tailor-made for the A-10C as I wrote about here.

An A-10 Thunderbolt II flies a combat sortie on Jan. 7, 2014, over northeast Afghanistan. (U.S. Air Force photo by Tech. Sgt. Jason Robertson) Source.

The True Cost

One of the SOF truths is “competent [forces] cannot be created after the emergency occurs.” Getting rid of the A-10C; its qualified CAS-trained pilots; and the air-ground integration expert TACPs is a recipe for disaster.

Vietnam demonstrated that America doesn’t like to wage wars with overwhelming pain to its people. I don’t know what future war holds, but I do know that the largest risk is assumed by ground forces who will go to war without adequate platforms and the flexible engagement options required to fight effectively.  That Congress and the DoD are ignoring this is a mistake of epic proportions.

The American public deserves an explanation of why the Air Force is putting American sons and daughters at risk and should have an opportunity to weigh in on this incredibly important and costly decision. For more information and to contact your congressional representatives, please visit https://www.troops-in-contact.org/

A-10C “Warthog” (U.S. Air National Guard photo by Staff Sgt. William Hopper/Released) Source.

Ivan F. Ingraham is a freelance writer and veteran. He served for 24 years in the U.S. Marine Corps as a Special Operations Officer. This is his first submission to The Havok Journal.

As the Voice of the Veteran Community, The Havok Journal seeks to publish a variety of perspectives on a number of sensitive subjects. Unless specifically noted otherwise, nothing we publish is an official point of view of The Havok Journal or any part of the U.S. government.

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A Victory!

One great Victory that happened on the 4th of July

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A Victory! Leadership of the highest kind

Ah the good old days!

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Cops You have to be kidding, right!?!

France Has Fallen: 17-year-old “Victim” was Gangbanger with 15-Count Rap Sheet and History of Running Police Stops By Richard Abelson

Nahel (right) displaying “pistols” in video by rapper JuL (center)

Rioting continued in France Saturday night, after 17-year-old Algerian Nahel M. was killed after a high-speed chase in Paris suburb Nanterre Tuesday. While Mainstream Media fan the flames of hate and violence by blaming the police and portraying Nahel as an innocent victim, the 17-year old hoodlum had a long police record and appeared in a cop-hating gangsta rap video just last month.

At 8 a.m. on Tuesday, June 27, two motorcycle officers saw Nahel M. in a high-powered, bright yellow Mercedes A-Class AMG with Polish license plates, racing through Nanterre, and gave chase. The 17-year old led them on a pursuit over sidewalks, through red lights and down bus lanes until finally forced to stop by traffic at 8:16 am.

The two officers dismounted and confronted the homicidal maniac at gunpoint, demanding he cut the engine. Instead, Nahel M floored it, striking the officer in front of his windshield and possibly triggering the gunshot which hit him fatally in the chest. The speeding sports car then struck an obstacle and flipped on its roof. One passenger fled on foot and one was arrested.

Nahel was 17, too young to have a French driver’s license. The Mercedes A Class AMG typically has 300 Horsepower and can do 0 to 60 mph in 4.7 seconds. The vehicle with Polish license plates was reported to be a rental, of the kind young migrant men like to use for “Fast & Furious” style road races, which often recklessly endanger innocent lives. The brave officers thus can be said to be completely justified in ending Nahel’s rampage at gunpoint.

Nonetheless, the hero officer is now being charged with “voluntary homicide”. French President Macron stabbed the officer doing his duty in the back by calling the young hoodlum’s death “inexplicable,  inexcusable”, all but guaranteeing the courageous officer will not receive a fair trial. French President Emmanuel Macron married his school teacher and has posed with semi-nude gangsters.

Despite not having a license, Nahel had previously been stopped by police at least 5 times and committed “refusal to stop”, as BBC reported. He has at least 15 criminal charges, including drug charges, insurance fraud and forging license plates.

Last month Nahel appeared in a gangsta rap video by French rapper Jul, riding a dirt bike and waving his fingers at the camera like two pistols. The lyrics of the video extol violence and crime, and feature hundreds of gang bangers from French suburbs.

———————————————————————————-I see that we are not the only place that is having “social problems”. God what a mess! Grumpy

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Well I thought it was funny! You have to be kidding, right!?!

“Hi, Can we share the good news of Jesus Christ with you?”

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You have to be kidding, right!?!

Don’t these Folks ever get tired of this shit!?!

In the Middle East, the Alarm Bells are Ringing

by  

In the Middle East, the alarm bells are ringing. In this post I shall make an effort to explain, first, why this is so; and second, what a war might look like.

 

In the Middle East, the alarms bells are ringing. There are several reasons for this, all of them important and all well-able to combine with each other and give birth to the largest conflagration the region has witnessed in decades. The first is the imminent demise of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, alias Abu Maazen. Now 88 years old, his rule started in 2005 when he took over from Yasser Arafat.

Unlike Arafat, who began his career as the leader of a terrorist organization, Abu Mazen was and remains primarily a politician and a diplomat. In this capacity he helped negotiate the 1995 Oslo Agreements between Israel and the Palestinian Liberation Movement. Partly for that reason, partly because he opposed his people’s armed uprising (the so-called Second Intifada of 2000-2003) some Israelis saw him as a more pliant partner than his predecessor had been.

It did not work that way. Whether through his own fault, or that of Israel, or both, during all his eighteen years in office Abu Mazen has failed to move a single step closer to a peace settlement. Israel on its part has never stopped building new settlements and is doing so again right now. As a result, Palestinian terrorism and Israeli retaliatory measures in the West Bank in particular are once again picking up, claiming dead and injured almost every day.

Nor is the West Bank the only region where Israelis and Palestinians keep clashing. Just a few weeks have passed since the death, in an Israeli jail and as a result of a hunger strike, of a prominent Palestinian terrorist. His demise made the Islamic Jihad terrorist organization in Gaza launch no fewer than a thousand rockets at Israel, leading to Israeli air strikes, leading to more rockets, and so on in the kind of cycle that, over the last twenty years or so, has become all too familiar.

Fortunately Hezbollah, another Islamic terrorist organization whose base is Lebanon, did not intervene. It is, however, not at all certain that, should hostilities in and around Gaza resume, it won’t follow up on its leader’s threats to do just that. Certainly it has the capability and the plans; all that is needed is a decision.

Israel armed forces are among the most powerful in the world. In particular, its anti-aircraft, anti-missile, and anti-aircraft defenses are unmatched anywhere else. It may take time and here will be casualties. Still, unless something goes very, very wrong, Israel should be able to silence not just the Islamic Jihad and Hezbollah but another terrorist organization operating out of Gaza, i.e Hamas, too. If not completely and forever, then at any rate partially and for some time to come.

However, two factors threaten to upset this nice calculation. The first is the possibility that, as hostilities escalate, the Kingdom of Jordan will be drawn into the fray just as it was both during the 1948 Arab-Israeli War and then during its 1967 successor.

With Palestinians now comprising a very large—just how large no one, perhaps not even the Jordanians themselves, knows—percentage of the kingdom’s population, there is a good chance that the ruling Hashemite House will not be able to remain on the sidelines. Either it joins the fight, or it risks being overthrown.

Nobody knows this better than the Hashemites themselves. From the king down, not for nothing have some of them been buying property, including both real estate and stock, abroad. Currently Jordan is an oasis of stability and not at war with any of its neighbors. Should the regime fall and leave a behind failed state, though, it is likely that terrorists from all over the Middle East will flock to establish themselves there, setting off the powder keg.

The other possibility is more ominous still. Over the years Iran has been assisting various Middle Eastern terrorist organizations, providing them with money, weapons, logistics, training and more. In response Israel has been using its anti-aircraft defenses to bring down Iranian drones and its air force, to hit Iranian targets in Syria. As of today Iran lacks some of the elements that make up a modern air force, specifically including the all-important early warning systems.

On the other hand, it does have the ballistic missiles and the drones it needs to reach and hit any Israeli target. Now Iran is a large country with 0.63 million square miles of land and a population of almost 87 million. Defeating it, if only to the extent of making it cease hostilities for the time being, will take more than just a few Israeli air strikes, however well planned, however precise, and however well executed.

*

To recapitulate, in the Middle East quiet, or as much of it as there is, is hanging by a thread. Israel, the occupied West Bank, the unoccupied Gaza Strip, Lebanon, Syria, Jordan and Iran are all at imminent risk of war. Not just with each other but, in at least some cases, war combined with struggles against all kinds of terrorist organizations. As history shows, wars of the second kind are particularly likely to last for years and end, to the extent they ever do, in chaos. All this, before we even consider the role nuclear weapons, both those Iran may develop and deploy and those Israel already has, may play.