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The War – (This may or may not be true) RUSSIANS PREPARE TO ABANDON WESTERN KHERSON OBLAST! UKRAINIAN ADVANCES IN NORTHEAST STALLED.

Russian guns in action in eastern Ukraine.

Latest Millitary News from the Russian Front – Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Russian Offensive Campaign Analysis for October 19

Institute for the Study of War
Katherine Lawlor, Karolina Hird, Grace Mappes, Riley Bailey, George Barros, and Frederick W. Kagan October 19, 8:00 pm ET Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report. Russian authorities are likely setting information conditions to justify planned Russian retreats and significant territorial losses in Kherson Oblast. Commander of Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine Army General Sergey Surovikin reported during an appearance on Russian television that the Russian military leadership has to make “difficult decisions” regarding Kherson Oblast and accused Ukraine of planning to strike civilian and residential infrastructure in Kherson Oblast.[1] Kherson Occupation Head Vladimir Saldo relatedly noted that his administration is evacuating the west bank of the Dnipro River in anticipation of a “large-scale” Ukrainian offensive.[2] Surovikin‘s and Saldo’s statements are likely attempts to set information conditions for a full Russian retreat across the Dnipro River, which would cede Kherson City and other significant territory in Kherson Oblast to advancing Ukrainian troops. Russian military leaders have evidently learned from previous informational and operational failures during the recent Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv Oblast and are therefore likely attempting to mitigate the informational and operational consequences of failing to defend against another successful Ukrainian advance. Russian forces are also setting information conditions to conduct a false-flag attack on the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP). The Russian military may believe that breaching the dam could cover their retreat from the right bank of the Dnipro River and prevent or delay Ukrainian advances across the river. Surovikin claimed on October 18 that he has received information that Kyiv intends to strike the dam at the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP), which he alleged would cause destructive flooding in Kherson Oblast.[3] Saldo echoed this claim and warned that Ukrainian forces intend to strike dams upstream of Kherson City.[4] Russian authorities likely intend these warnings about a purported Ukrainian strike on the Kakhovka HPP to set information conditions for Russian forces to damage the dam and blame Ukraine for the subsequent damage and loss of life, all while using the resulting floods to cover their own retreat further south into Kherson Oblast. The Kremlin could attempt to leverage such a false-flag attack to overshadow the news of a third humiliating retreat for Russian forces, this time from western Kherson. Such an attack would also further the false Russian information operation portraying Ukraine as a terrorist state that deliberately targets civilians. Russia continues to use the guise of civilian “evacuations” as a cover for the mass forced removal of civilians from Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine. Saldo’s announcement of a mass withdra

There is a lot of news today, both military and political. So I am going to have to divide the Posts again. This one will cover military news and, assuming I can manage it, a later post will cover political issues.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

The Kherson Counter Offensive

“Russian authorities are likely setting information conditions to justify planned Russian retreats and significant territorial losses in Kherson Oblast. Commander of Russian Forces Surovikin reported during an appearance on Russian television that the Russian military leadership has to make “difficult decisions” regarding Kherson Oblast and accused Ukraine of planning to strike civilian and residential infrastructure in Kherson Oblast. Kherson Occupation Head Saldo relatedly noted that his administration is evacuating the west bank of the Dnipro River in anticipation of a “large-scale” Ukrainian offensive. Surovikin‘s and Saldo’s statements are likely attempts to set information conditions for a full Russian retreat across the Dnipro River, which would cede Kherson City and other significant territory in Kherson Oblast to advancing Ukrainian troops. Russian military leaders have evidently learned from previous informational and operational failures during the recent Ukrainian counter offensive in Kharkiv Oblast and are therefore likely attempting to mitigate the informational and operational consequences of failing to defend against another successful Ukrainian advance.”

This paragraph shows that the Russians are less tone deaf to Ukrainian advances and are “setting conditions” (e.g., preparing Russians) for another upcoming defeat and withdrawal. The main questions appear to be how orderly such a retreat will be and what opportunities it will afford advancing Ukrainian troops.

“Russian forces are also setting information conditions to conduct a false-flag attack on the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (KHPP). The Russian military may believe that breaching the dam could cover their retreat from the right bank of the Dnipro River and prevent or delay Ukrainian advances across the river. Surovikin claimed on October 18 that he has received information that Kyiv intends to strike the dam, which he alleged would cause destructive flooding in Kherson Oblast. Saldo echoed this claim and warned that Ukrainian forces intend to strike dams upstream of Kherson City. Russian authorities likely intend these warnings about a purported Ukrainian strike on the KHPP to set information conditions for Russian forces to damage the dam and blame Ukraine for the subsequent damage and loss of life, all while using the resulting floods to cover their own retreat further south into Kherson Oblast. The Kremlin could attempt to leverage such a false-flag attack to overshadow the news of a third humiliating retreat for Russian forces, this time from western Kherson. Such an attack would also further the false Russian information operation portraying Ukraine as a terrorist state that deliberately targets civilians.”

What possible reason Kyiv could have for taking such an action against its own civilians is not explained and makes no sense. This is just another example of Russia making inherently unbelievable claims and expecting them to be accepted. Of course, actually carrying the threat out would make things even worse.

“Russian sources widely claimed that Ukrainian troops conducted another general counter offensive in northwestern Kherson Oblast on October 19. A Russian occupation deputy claimed that Ukrainian troops went on the offensive around noon on October 19 and attacked from northern Kherson Oblast about 30km south of the Kherson Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border toward Beryslav. Other Russian sources similarly claimed that Ukrainian troops launched an offensive south of the Nova Kamianka-Dudchany area and attacked toward Sukhanove and Piatykhatky, both near the current frontline in northwestern Kherson Oblast and about 35km north of Beryslav. ISW is unable to verify these claims. Russian milbloggers (RMBs) reported that elements of the 126th Coastal Defense Brigade, 11th, 80th, and 83rd Air Assault Brigades, and 76th Guards Air Assault Division are holding the line of defense in this area and prevented significant Ukrainian advances. These elements, especially the 126th Coastal Defense Brigade, are severely degraded and understrength, and some have likely been active in Kherson Oblast without rest or rotation for most of the war.”

These elements were once among Russia’s most capable units, but have now been reduced to mere shadows of their former selves. Unless augmented by substantial numbers of additional troops, it is highly unlikely that they can hold the line in northern and northwestern Kherson. These units were probably chosen for the defense of this sector as they are more likely to be able to withdraw in better order than less experienced troops.

Beryslav is the major Russian supply and logistics point on the west bank of the Kokhovka Reservoir and presumably the Russians will abandon the northwestern part of the Oblast before Ukrainian troops can seriously threaten it.

“Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command (USOC) noted that Ukrainian forces are continuing “active combat operations” and focusing on “creating favorable conditions for the development of further offensives.” Ukrainian forces additionally continued their interdiction campaign against Russian concentration areas in Kherson Oblast as part of the ongoing counteroffensive. USOC and other Ukrainian military sources reported that Ukrainian strikes destroyed three ammunition warehouses around Beryslav, Nova Kakhkovka, and Kherson City on October 18. Ukrainian strikes likely also hit a Russian ferry crossing 3km north of Nova Kakhovka on the opposing bank of the Dnipro River. Satellite imagery from October 18 shows that Russian troops have completed the creation of a barge bridge near Kherson City as part of an effort to reconstitute river crossings as Ukrainian troops continue to target Russian transportation capabilities across the Dnipro River.”

Both the Russian statements and their construction of a barge bridge (a bridge generally constructed of steel planking aid across barges and not terribly sturdy) is evidence that Russia is preparing to abandon Kherson west of the Dnipro, as their forces there are overstressed.

Nothing of substance new to report in Zaporizhzhya Oblast – Russia statements indicate likely false shelling by Ukrainian of the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant and a supposed amphibious assault to take it.

EASTERN UKRAINE

The Luhansk Counter Offensive

“Russian forces continued to conduct limited assaults to recapture lost territory in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast on October 19. The UGS reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults on Dvorichna, 17km northeast of Kupyansk in Kharkiv Oblast. The Luhansk People’s Republic Deputy Internal Minister reiterated claims that Russian forces captured Horobivka, also 17km northeast of Kupyansk on October 18, although ISW cannot independently verify that Russian forces have captured the settlement. The Russian Ministry of Defense (RMoD) claimed that Russian forces struck Ukrainian control points and concentrations of manpower and equipment throughout Kharkiv Oblast”.

“Russian and Ukrainian forces reportedly continued fighting along the Kreminna to Svatove line on October 19. A Russian source claimed that Russian forces repelled a Ukrainian assault on the Kyslivk in the direction of Svatove. The RMoD claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian formations that attempted to cross the Zherebets River 16km northwest of Svatove, 15km west of Svatove, 11km west of Svatove) in Luhansk Oblast. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian ground assault near Bilohorivka (12km south of Kreminna). A RMB claimed that Russian and Ukrainian forces are continuing to fight west of Kreminna in the vicinity of Terny, 18km northwest of Kreminna, and Torski, 16km west of Kreminna, although ISW cannot independently verify his claims.”

It appears that, for now, Ukrainian forces are largely defending against Russian attacks in northeastern Ukraine. Given that the Russians claim the capture of only one small village (which is not confirmed), it indicates that the Ukrainians are not overextended and are able to repel what appear to be largely limited and local counter attacks.

Fighting in Donetsk

“The UGS reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian ground attacks south of Bakhmut near four villages. Russian sources claimed that fighting is ongoing in Optyne and on Bakhmut’s eastern outskirts. Russian sources also claimed that fighting is ongoing in Soledar’s industrial zone and near Spirne, 18km northeast of Soledar. The UGS also reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian ground attacks northeast of Avdiivka, west of Donetsk City, and in western Donetsk Oblast. A Russian source claimed that Russian forces are continuing to fight southwest of Avdiivka. A Russian source also claimed that Russian forces attacked fortified Ukrainian positions in Marinka, and geolocated footage confirmed that Russian forces have advanced further down the highway north of Marinka. A Russian source claimed that positional battles are ongoing in the Vuhledar area in western Donetsk Oblast, and a different Russian source expressed continued concern that Ukrainian forces may launch a counter offensive in the Vuhledar area.”

Another day without even Russian claims of having captured a village – it appears that even their limited and local counter attacks are failing now. On the other hand, the rumors of another Ukrainian offensive – either in western Donetsk or northeastern Zaporizhzhya continue as a subject of great concern for the RMB community.

And finally…

Ukrainian attacks in Kherson appear to have cracked the Russian lines and forced them to prepare for withdrawal from the Oblast west of the Dnipro. However, announcing in advance that a retreat may occur is not necessarily good news for the Ukrainians, as it could indicate that the withdrawal will be less disordered than previous Russian retreats. Also, the apparent intention to blow the Kakhovka Dam is worrisome, although how much damage that would cause is unknown. The period of easy advances for the Ukrainians has at least temporarily ended in the northeast and seems to have come to a pause. To make sure that Ukrainian advances don’t halt altogether, the Western allies need to provide the Ukrainians additional support at this critical juncture.

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